Texas Tom
 | |
| Era | The Modern Era |
|---|---|
| Age | 55-70 |
| Home | Midland, TX |
| Demographic | rural, white, rancher |
| Lean | Strong Republican |
| Race | white |
| Predecessor | Abilene Ray |
Tom is a West Texas cattleman with a small oil lease who has voted reliably Republican since the Obama years. A Republican president can expect at least his support, and a Democratic president can expect at most it.
Who they stand for
Tom represents rural white Republican voters of the American interior, including ranchers, oil-lease holders and small-town business owners, who gave Trump his widest vote margins in all three elections. The Permian Basin, where Tom holds his oil lease, went through the 2014 oil price collapse, the shale boom that followed, and negative prices in April 2020, so energy policy affects his income directly, not just his opinions. Biden's cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline and pause on new federal oil and gas leasing in January 2021 confirmed what Tom already believed about Democrats. The Supreme Court's 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges ruling, which legalised same-sex marriage nationwide, and border security surges in 2014, 2019 and 2021 reinforced his views.
Abilene Ray, an earlier persona in this series, was a Chamber of Commerce Republican who could sit comfortably with a liberal at a Rotary Club table. Tom is that same man after Walmart displaced his town's small businesses and his church's opposition to same-sex marriage lost out nationally. As a result, Tom no longer accepts being governed by people he disagrees with. This showed first in his support for the Tea Party, then for Senator Ted Cruz, and then for Trump.
Playing to them
A president rarely wins Tom's support for the first time; a president keeps his existing support or loses it. A Republican president keeps Tom's support by securing the border and permitting oil and gas drilling, and loses it by taking positions associated with the Democratic Party, such as a new gun-control measure after a mass shooting, a new methane emissions rule, a Pride month proclamation, or an immigration deal negotiated with Democrats. A Democratic president is unlikely to win Tom and should not spend much effort trying. What a Democratic president can do is avoid provoking Tom into political organising, because a federal water regulation affecting ranch land or a federal law protecting abortion rights can turn his disapproval into an organised movement.
Everything that pleases Tom has a political cost elsewhere. The border security and drilling permits that hold his support repel College Chloe and Bay Area Priya, and a president who echoes his views on gay and transgender Americans loses the support of Woodstock Allen and Suburban Sarah at the same time. Heartland Hank, Iowa Martha and Podcast Pete tend to move together with Tom. Country Club Craig shares Tom's preference for low taxes but not his temperament.
Where they live
The five states where Texas Tom makes up the largest share of the electorate in the modern era:
- Oklahoma
- Wyoming
- Mississippi
- Idaho
- Arkansas
Lineage
Main Street Don → Abilene Ray → Texas Tom
Small-town business Republicans, and what changes is that the courtesy goes and grievance replaces it. Don belongs to the Chamber of Commerce and votes Bob Dole, and is populist only when Walmart takes his trade. Ray belongs to the Chamber and the church, is Bush's base, and is civil to the liberals at Rotary. Tom is not civil: government is the problem, coastal elites run the country, and woke is the enemy. The town lost to Walmart, then his church's side lost on marriage, and anger is what remains. Swing, then strong Republican.