Bayou Clarence
 | |
| Era | The Modern Era |
|---|---|
| Age | 60-72 |
| Home | Baton Rouge, LA |
| Demographic | Black, small-business owner, Southern conservative |
| Lean | Strong Republican |
| Race | black |
| Predecessor | Bayou Curtis |
Clarence is a Black Republican in his sixties who lives on the Louisiana bayou and runs his own fishing boat. He is a churchgoer who has never voted for a Democrat, and he believes his community's loyalty to the Democratic Party has gained it nothing.
Who they stand for
Clarence stands for the Black Republican vote, which was below one in ten Black voters when Obama left office in 2017 and grew over the following decade, mostly among Black men. His generation of Black Republican voters is Southern, religious and older, and votes on abortion, school choice and small business rather than on historical grievance. The Republican Party gained a prominent Black spokesman when Tim Scott won a full Senate term from South Carolina in 2014, the first Black senator elected from the South since Reconstruction. The party also gained a line of argument from the Blexit campaign of 2018, which held that the Democratic Party owns the history of segregation and has fostered Black dependence on welfare.
His predecessor, Bayou Curtis, criticised the government's response to Hurricane Katrina and voted Republican regardless, and no one asked him to explain why. Clarence has been asked to explain his views, and he answers at length. He cites the rise in Black male support for Trump in the 2020 and 2024 elections as proof that his neighbours are coming to agree with him.
Playing to them
Clarence responds well to a president who funds charter schools and school vouchers, opposes abortion, provides loans to small businesses, and speaks in a Black church without apologising for being there. He does not forgive being told how a Black man is supposed to vote, and he treats a racial quota, a reparations proposal, or support for defunding the police as continuing what he sees as a failed relationship between Black voters and the Democratic Party. A Republican candidate can win his support by showing up in his community. A Democratic candidate can win only a hearing from him, and only by talking about schools and crime, not history.
Winning Clarence's support on school choice also wins the support of Edison Chen and Miami Maria, and loses the support of Atlanta Andre and Detroit Denise, whose communities rely on unions that run the public schools. Winning his support on abortion loses the support of College Chloe and Bay Area Priya. It does not lose the support of Gospel Gloria, who agrees with Clarence on the church and on abortion but will never vote for the Republican Party. Brooklyn Jamal holds the opposite view to Clarence on every issue except race.
Where they live
The five states where Bayou Clarence makes up the largest share of the electorate in the modern era:
- Mississippi
- Georgia
- Louisiana
- Maryland
- Alabama
Lineage
Bayou Earl → Bayou Curtis → Bayou Clarence
The same man on the same bayou, and what changes is that his position acquires an argument. Nobody from either party ever asks Earl why he votes Republican. Curtis criticises the federal government's Katrina response from the pulpit and votes Republican anyway. Clarence has Tim Scott and a complete argument that the Democrats are the real party of racism. The Republican Party has finally made his case for him, and he repeats it.