Startup Seth
 | |
| Era | The 2000s |
|---|---|
| Age | 24-30 |
| Home | Palo Alto, CA |
| Demographic | young white, technology, libertarian |
| Lean | Lean Republican |
| Race | white |
| Predecessor | Dot-Com Drew |
| Successor | Podcast Pete |
Seth is a software engineer in his late twenties at a Palo Alto startup who holds libertarian views but usually votes Republican. He sides with the party on economic issues but not on much else, and the Bush coalition kept his vote mainly because of tax policy.
Who they stand for
Seth stands for the libertarian voters of the second internet boom, young, secular, well-paid engineers in Silicon Valley, Seattle and Austin whose politics reflected the technology industry's concerns. Those concerns included the Sarbanes-Oxley law of 2002, which made it harder for small companies to go public, the H-1B visa cap, which fell to 65,000 in 2004, and the capital-gains tax rate. On financial matters they were Republicans, and George W. Bush's 2005 push for private Social Security accounts was aimed at them. On almost everything else the decade pushed them away from the party. They disliked the Transportation Security Administration and the Patriot Act, the proposed federal marriage amendment, the Terri Schiavo intervention, and a war they had backed based on intelligence that proved false. The Cato Institute recorded libertarian voters drifting from Bush between 2000 and 2004, and by 2007 many were donating to Ron Paul's campaign.
Seth is part of a lineage of personas representing libertarian and secular voters across decades. Dot Com Drew, an earlier figure, was shaped mainly by direct experience of government regulation. Podcast Pete, a later figure, cares nothing for economic libertarianism and makes the culture war his whole politics.
Playing to them
Seth is unusual, since either party can win his vote but neither can keep it easily. A Republican president holds his support with tax cuts, free trade, more skilled-worker visas and private retirement accounts, but loses it once the party's religious wing is rewarded. A marriage amendment or a bill like the Schiavo intervention costs him more support than any tax cut buys back. A Democratic president can win his support instead by repealing surveillance laws, legalising cannabis and leaving marriage to couples, as long as the budget does not grow and no tariff or union favour follows. A Democratic president loses his support with a minimum-wage increase or a corporate bailout. He responds to arguments with numbers and evidence, and little else. A slogan aimed at a voter like Chattanooga Travis has no effect on him.
Winning Seth's support through trade policy and skilled-worker visas loses Janesville Gary, Chattanooga Travis and Las Vegas Marisol. Winning his support through private retirement accounts loses Snowbird Angela and Fox News Phyllis. Winning his support through marriage and cannabis policy loses Megachurch Heather, Jasper Faye and Abilene Ray. Repealing the Patriot Act to win him loses Security Mom Donna.
Where they live
The five states where Startup Seth makes up the largest share of the electorate in the 2000s:
- New Hampshire
- Utah
- Washington
- Arizona
- Oregon
Lineage
Dot-Com Drew → Startup Seth → Podcast Pete
The same type of man: young, white, clever, libertarian on economics, not religious, uninterested in moral questions. What changes is whether the tech industry employs him, and where his energy goes as a result. Drew and Seth work in tech, and their politics are the industry's: deregulation, low capital gains tax, more H-1B visas. Pete does not, because H-1B hiring and diversity hiring have made it hard for a young white man to get in, and he works in sales. Drew and Seth put their energy into startups. Pete puts his into podcasts, YouTube, Twitter and crypto, and comes away with a grievance: everything is unfair on men like him. That is partly true and partly the effect of what he listens to. On economics all three are the same: low taxes, no welfare. The difference is that Pete cares about the moral and cultural questions, race, sex, gender and speech, which Drew and Seth never did, and he takes the right's side on all of them.