NASCAR Doug
 | |
| Era | The 2000s |
|---|---|
| Age | 40-49 |
| Home | Mason, OH |
| Demographic | white, suburban sales, Methodist |
| Lean | Swing voter |
| Race | white |
| Predecessor | Bergen Vinny |
| Successor | Grill Dad Greg |
Doug is a uniform salesman and Little League coach in the Cincinnati exurbs, and he is the suburban father whose vote decides Ohio. He has no fixed ideology; he votes on his premium, his taxes and the president's steadiness, and briefly on the war.
Who they stand for
George W. Bush won Ohio by about 118,000 votes in the 2004 election. That margin came mainly from the exurban counties north of Cincinnati; Warren County gave Bush seven votes in ten. The same ballot carried Issue 1, an amendment banning same-sex marriage, which passed with six votes in ten, and Doug approved it without much thought.
Tom Noe ran a rare-coin investment fund using state workers' compensation money, and its collapse became known as Coingate in 2005. Governor Bob Taft pleaded no contest to ethics charges that August. In 2006, voter disgust with these scandals elected Ted Strickland governor and Sherrod Brown to the Senate.
Rising costs pushed Doug away from Republicans. Petrol passed three dollars a gallon in 2005 and four dollars in 2008. A family health insurance plan roughly doubled in cost over the decade. A 2005 proposal to partly privatise Social Security frightened Doug more than any Democrat.
Doug represents a recurring type of Ohio suburban father whose vote is not fixed to either party and who usually votes only on the cost of living. The September 11 attacks made him unusual, because for about three years he became a swing voter motivated by a cause.
Playing to them
Doug responds well to a tax rebate, a balanced budget, relief on his insurance premium, a promise to leave Social Security alone, praise for the troops, and a calm rather than a panicked president. He does not forgive a political scandal, an exposed lie, a plan to privatise a government programme, petrol above four dollars a gallon, a long war, or pressure to take a side on a divisive issue. Cultural issues do not motivate him strongly; he voted for the Ohio marriage amendment without lasting concern. Either party can win him by appearing competent and lose him by appearing greedy or weak.
Both parties compete for his vote because he is easy to win. Preserving Social Security costs the support of Startup Seth and Abilene Ray, who want private retirement accounts instead. A hard line on illegal immigration costs the support of Mesa Ruben, Bakersfield Jesús and Las Vegas Marisol. A balanced federal budget pleases Country Club Whit and Beltway Meredith. Dayton Tammy is a similar persona with less money than Doug. She votes on her insurance premium, while Doug votes on his taxes and his 401k, and she blames a factory closing, while Doug blames the federal deficit.
Where they live
The five states where NASCAR Doug makes up the largest share of the electorate in the 2000s:
- Kansas
- Nebraska
- Iowa
- Vermont
- Indiana
Lineage
Bergen Vinny → NASCAR Doug → Grill Dad Greg
The suburban father without an ideology, the same in every decade. He votes on the property tax, his health premium, interest rates and whether the president seems steady, and the only thing that changes is which cost is rising: petrol in 1995, the premium in 2006, inflation in 2019. The one exception is Doug, who supported Bush and the Iraq war after 9/11 for about three years. Greg has no such cause and votes for whichever party seems less extreme.