Chattanooga Travis
 | |
| Era | The 2000s |
|---|---|
| Age | 32-40 |
| Home | Chattanooga, TN |
| Demographic | white, union tradesman, Pentecostal |
| Lean | Lean Republican |
| Race | white |
| Predecessor | Bay Ridge Kevin |
| Successor | Union Jack |
Travis is a union pipefitter and a tithing Pentecostal in East Tennessee, and the son of a Democrat. He votes on marriage, abortion and guns as his church directs, and draws his pension from his union local without seeing a contradiction.
Who they stand for
White evangelical union members of the upland South and Ohio Valley are voters the labour movement loses in this decade, even though it keeps collecting their dues. Union membership falls to about one worker in eight, and to under one in ten in the private sector, while manufacturing loses roughly a third of its jobs after China joins the WTO in 2001. The unions endorse John Kerry in 2004, but members ignore the endorsement and vote instead on the marriage amendments on eleven state ballots that year, and on Tennessee's 2006 amendment, which passes four to one. Rush Limbaugh and Fox News reach these workers through the radio in their trucks, replacing the union shop steward's influence.
His predecessor, Kevin, still splits his vote issue by issue, Democratic on pay and pensions, Republican on everything else. Travis no longer splits his vote this way. His church decides his vote, his union local keeps his pension, and he ignores its own endorsement of candidates. His successor, Jack, no longer attends church but votes the same way as Travis on trade, immigration and culture. Across these three generations, the union's influence over its members' votes goes from binding to ignored to gone.
Playing to them
Travis rewards support for guns, a marriage amendment, prayer in schools, tariffs on China, backing for the troops, and leaving his pension alone. His economics are Democratic on trade and Republican on everything else, so a free-trading Republican keeps his support on cultural issues but loses his support on trade protection for industry, while a protectionist Democrat can win him over only by staying silent on marriage and guns, something no Democrat manages to do in this decade.
He does not forgive gun control, gay marriage, a trade deal with China, amnesty, or a sneer at his church, and he does not forget being called a hillbilly. Winning his support on trade costs the support of Country Club Whit, Startup Seth and Fremont Anjali, who favour free trade. Winning his support on cultural issues costs the support of Park Slope Dana, Berkeley Leonard and Beltway Meredith. His hostility towards non-union work crews puts him at odds with Bakersfield Jesús. Janesville Gary and Pike County Brenda agree with him on nearly everything.
Where they live
The five states where Chattanooga Travis makes up the largest share of the electorate in the 2000s:
- Tennessee
- Kentucky
- Ohio
- Indiana
- Pennsylvania
Lineage
Bay Ridge Kevin → Chattanooga Travis → Union Jack
Union members who vote conservative, and what changes is how far the union vote and the conservative vote have separated. Kevin votes issue by issue and still votes Democrat on pay and pensions. Travis keeps the union card for the pension and votes Republican on guns, abortion and marriage, ignoring the union's endorsement. Jack keeps the card and votes Trump on trade, immigration and woke politics. Religion decided Travis's vote and plays no part in Jack's, because marriage was lost, abortion went to the Court, and the cultural issues of 2019 are ones Jack cares about without going to church. The union endorsement goes from binding, to ignored, to irrelevant.